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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 18 (COT report). Traders are quietly buying the British dollar as part of a general upward

Relevance up to 05:00 2021-10-19 UTC–4


According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair secured above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3722). Thus, the growth process of the pair can be continued towards the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3795). The upward trend corridor continues to characterize the current mood of traders as “bullish.” Only the closing of the pair’s rate under it will allow us to count on a strong drop in the British dollar’s quotes. Fixing under the corrective level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3663).

Meanwhile, the information background from the UK is now practically not received. Recently, the key topic for the British is the fuel crisis, which is only part of a more structural crisis in the form of a shortage of workers in many areas of the economy and industries of production and services. After the EU and Britain completed Brexit, the British faced a shortage of workers in those positions that were not too interested in the British themselves.

Over the years of living in the European Union, the British have become accustomed to the fact that migrant workers do all the menial and difficult work, so they are in no hurry to become drivers, loaders, builders, waiters, factory workers, and farms. Thus, the shortage of labor is observed in the fuel industry and many other industries. Nevertheless, the pound, growing for three weeks, is clearly no longer interested in this crisis. The second rather important topic is the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In the next few months, the Fed may begin to wind down its stimulus program, and, most likely, the Bank of England will follow its example, perhaps with a slight delay. But one way or another, it will happen. For several months in a row, one or two members have been voting for curtailing incentives. It is reasonable to assume that they will only become more over time. However, even this factor is unlikely to affect the mood of traders too much now.


The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart is also moving inside the upward trend corridor. Thus, the “bullish” mood of traders is now evident on both charts. The growth process can be continued toward the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). Fixing quotes under the corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of a new fall in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3642). Emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator today.

News calendar for the USA and the UK:

US – change in industrial production (13:15 UTC).

UK – Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Financial Stability, will deliver a speech (14:30 UTC).

There won’t be a lot of important economic events in the UK and the US on Monday. Jon Cunliffe’s speech may not affect the mood of traders in any way. I believe that the information background will be very weak today.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

The latest COT report from October 12 on the pound showed that the mood of the major players had become much more “bullish.” In the reporting week, speculators closed 1,700 long contracts and 10,673 short contracts. Thus, the “bearish” mood has become much weaker. Nevertheless, the number of short contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators still exceeds the number of long contracts by 11 thousand. It still indicates a fairly strong “bearish” mood. Thus, we can expect a resumption of the fall of the British dollar in the near future. However, the current growth of the British dollar corresponds to the actions of speculators in the last week. And both upward trend corridors support the further growth of the British dollar.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:

I recommend buying the British when closing above the level of 61.8% (1.3722) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3795. Now you should stay in these deals if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3722. I recommend opening sales if there is a close below the 1.3722 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3663.


“Non-commercial” – major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

“Commercial” – commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not to make speculative profits, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

“Non-reportable positions” are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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